2008 Preview Series - Pac 10

The Pac 10 Sings a Melancholy Tune.

The Rivalry’s music tastes vary widely; lately we've been jamming to The Arcade Fire, Talib Kweli, and Led Zeppelin. But while doing the Pac 10 Season Preview, we wrote and researched to the iconic sound of Janet Jackson’s “What Have You Done for Me Lately” and Shania Twain’s machismo-stomping “That Don’t Impress Me Much.” These two hits seemed appropriate listening material when discussing the always hyped, mostly disappointing Pac 10 football conference.

From the Nike-infused intensity in Autzen to the star-studded Trojans in Los Angeles, the Pac 10 is considered among the elite 3 football conferences in America. But The Rivalry, Esq. believes the Pac 10’s football results of 2007 are a microcosm of the overall weakness of this storied conference. USC, Oregon, California, and Arizona State were all ranked in the top 5 during the season, yet each team faced late season swoons that left USC looking like the only legitimate power.

The 2007 Pac 10 conference was a media darling before the season; the 2008 Pac 10 will fly under the radar. Oregon, Oregon State and California are all rebuilding offensively while USC and Arizona State are the only two teams ranked in most pre season Top 25’s. Many of the playmakers that made the Pac 10 so interesting have graduated or been drafted into the NFL. So while we hope the Pac 10 teams crescendo like Jimmy Page's guitar riff in "Kashmir" from their lowly ratings most experts and bloggers are predicting mediocre results.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS

Esquire Rating: 5/5

Orenthal James’ alma mater gears up for a title run.

Matt Leinart. Reggie Bush. Pete Carroll. USC is not a bad place to play football right now. But let us not forget that just 9 years ago, USC was a 5-7 last place team lacking an identity. USC, the school of Tailback U, the Perfect Day, and Marcus Allen, has taken monster steps in the last 6 years to becoming a perennial Top 5 team.

The Trojans recruit the best athletes and place them in a proven offensive and defensive scheme. The Trojans offense is traditional in comparison to teams like Florida, Ohio State, and West Virginia. Carroll runs a pro style I form that treasures one on one match-ups the minions usually win. The defense is built on man-child athletes like Sedrick Ellis, Lofa Tatupu, and Troy Polamalu. Carroll’s ra-ra spirit has made USC the cool kid in town; the sidelines are full of celebrities and former stars.

But no matter how highly rated the USC Trojans were or how badly they trounced Illinois in the Rose Bowl, USC fans were not satisfied with an 11-2 season and an end of season #3 ranking. Its title game or bust for these Trojans, as well it should be.

2008 will bring high expectations, as the Trojans talent level far outstrips Oregon or Arizona State. Even without John David Booty returning, Mark Sanchez and Mitch Mustain are both blue chippers well equipped for the starting job. USC will be stacked on defense, but Ellis will be missed. If you remember the way USC overran opposing offensive lines last year, you will understand the vital role Ellis played.

Must Win: OHIO STATE (9/13). One half of The Rivalry, Esq. believes that USC’s quarterback (whichever one starts) will be too inexperienced and the Buckeye’s have the advantage. The other half believes that USC’s athletes can overcome any QB weakness and overwhelm the immobile Todd Boeckman. Either way, this “Game of the Century” is slated to be the top college football match up of 2008.

Rivalry Comment: Fun Stat: Since Pete Carroll came to USC, the Trojans are 11-3 against Top 10 opponents.

Predicted Record: 11-1 (7-1 conference)

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

Esquire Rating: 3/5

10 win seasons don't make you a great team, especially in the Pac 10.

Many critics believed Dennis Erickson’s 10-3 campaign in 2007 was the beginning of the Sun Devil’s rise to national prominence. The Rivalry, Esq. wonders aloud whether the successful season of 2007 was more of a referendum on the mediocrity of the Pac 10, instead of proof that the Sun Devils have a burgeoning program. Proof lies in Arizona State’s results in its three big games vs. USC, Oregon, and Texas: loss, loss, and loss.

The 2008 Sun Devils return a great QB in Rudy Carpenter and a solid running back corps. Erickson has a national championship and adds an air of relevance to the Pac 10; he has shown offensive ingenuity wherever he has coached. Everyone expects the Sun Devils to win 8-9 games, but the big test will be how the Sun Devils play in their monster games versus Oregon, USC, and Georgia.

Must Win: OREGON (10/25). The Sun Devils were 8-0 to start 2007 and were ranked in the top 5; the thought that Arizona State was a Top 5 team was quickly dispelled. This matchup will be comprised of two very similar teams, both fighting to be the 2^nd best program in the Pac 10.

Rivalry Comment: Somewhere in my muddled research, I found that Arizona State played my alma mater Miami (OH) in the 1950 Salad Bowl. I’m sure the players had a good time tossing the football around...right.

Predicted Record: 9-3 (7-2 conference)

OREGON DUCKS

Esquire Rating: 3/5

Good times, bad times.

The above mentioned Led Zeppelin song does a pretty good job of summing up last season for the Oregon Ducks. My Michigan brethren and I will not easily forget Dennis Dixon dissecting our defense with his strong arm and quick feet. The rest of the nation will not easily forget how Dixon’s injury versus Arizona ended the Ducks national championship hopes.

With All-American’s Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart gone, the Ducks won't shoot out of the gates offensively like in 2007. However, the defense will be solid and Oregon has no trouble attracting athletes who will make an impact on the offensive side (i.e. LaGarrette Blount, JUCO extraordinaire).

Must Win: @USC (10/4). The Duck’s need to attack whoever is at quarterback for USC. Getting pressure on Mustain or Sanchez will be paramount if Oregon is to pull off the upset.

Rivalry Comment: Oregon is an intriguing football program in The Rivalry’s eyes. Autzen Stadium has proven to be an incredible home advantage to the Ducks and Phil Knight’s donations from his Nike fortune have given Oregon some of the best athletic facilities in the nation. With those advantages, Oregon’s success of 2007 isn't entirely surprising.

Predicted Record: 9-3 (6-3 conference)

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

Esquire Rating: 3/5

Jeff Tedford faces his biggest challenge yet.

Whenever I think of 2007 California, I think of Desean Jackson making Deon Sanders-esq plays, a blowout of a solid Tennessee team, and one of the biggest crumbles in recent history. California was a whisper away from being ranked in #1, only to lose 6 out of its last 8 games. Tedford’s QB magic wore off as QB Nate Longshore struggled mightily.

For 2008 Cali has solid linebackers and a strong defense; many experts believe that Tedford will have to depend on his defense until he can create a cohesive offensive lineup. California’s August game v Michigan State will give everyone a great look at whether the Bears have forgotten their 2-6 finish of 2007.

On the offensive side of the ball, Blue Chip QB Kevin Riley looked excellent in the Armed Forces game. He has an excellent arm and doesn’t lack mobility. Ooo, a QB Controversy for the QB magician? The Rivalry is intrigued.

Must Win: UCLA (10/25). California must beat the Bruins to prove they are not just another middle of the road Pac 10 team; around this time last year, the Bears were falling apart.

Rivalry Comment: All American Center Alex Mack is 320 pounds and can do the splits. The Rivalry vaguely remembers a Nickelodeon show called “Alex Mack” about a teenage girl.   We think this coincidence is interesting, but absolutely meaningless.

On another note, The Rivalry certainly roots for California. It must be those classic jerseys, the cursive writing on the helmet, and “The Play.”

Predicted Record: 7-5 (5-4 conference)

UCLA Bruins

Esquire Rating: 2.5/5

Will the Mormon make it his mission to lead UCLA to a turnaround?

Ben Olsen, Rick Neuheisel, and Norm Chow aim to turn around this mediocre Bruin program. They each have distinct roles. Olsen needs to prove he is an All-American QB and needs to avoid injuries. Neuheisel needs to convince recruits that UCLA can be as successful as cross-town rival USC. Chow needs to add some pizzazz to an offense that has struggled since Cade McNown left in 1998.

The Bruin defense is loaded like a good baked potato. The 2007 defense was hard hitting and intense; Reggie Carter, Brigham Harwell, and Akeen Ayers are all NFL talent.

Must Win: ARIZONA (9/20). UCLA needs to let their urgency to win show in a game like this.  The defense should be good enough to stifle Willie’s spread offense.

Rivalry Comment: Once every 10 to 20 years, the Bruins have an All World QB. The study Gary Beban won the Heisman in ’67, Troy Aikman won the Davey O’Brien in ‘88, and McNown almost won the Heisman in ’98. Can Olsen be the next great one?

Predicted Record: 7-5 (5-4 conference)

WASHINGTON HUSKIES

Esquire Rating: 2/5

Will Jake Locker be recruited by “Days of Our Lives”?

Washington is the last Pac 10 team not named USC to win a national title; the 1991 Huskies completed an undefeated season, easily smacking Michigan in the Rose Bowl. The 1991 Huskies played it close all year and featured future NFL bust DT Steve Entman, who dominated the college game. But the Huskies haven’t been a legitimate power since 2001 and the fans need a winning season from Willingham.

We were going to harp on the horrid nature of U-Dub’s 2007 results, but were persuaded to take a closer look. The Huskies almost beat USC and played Ohio State and Hawaii down to the wire, with an ultra talented, frosh QB. But while these glimpses may garner some optimism, Ty Willingham’s defense dispelled any thoughts that U-Dub was ready to be a .500 team. Here are the point totals given up by the Husky defense, game by game:

12, 10, 33, 44, 27, 44, 55, 48, 9, 29, 23, 42, 35 (for an average of 30 points per game allowed)

Washington’s 2008 schedule isn't any easier and the defense lost 5 impact line players to graduation. Having the dreamy Jake Locker as a soph QB will make the offensive instantly legitimate, but Locker will have to generate a lot of points to make up for a defense that has little experience and no veteran leadership.

Must Win: NOTRE DAME (10/25). Will the Golden Domers be embroiled in another losing campaign or will they furnish a tough test for Washington?

Rivalry Comment: The Rivalry, Esq. has very real memories of feeling depressed at the age of 8 while watching Washington dismantle Michigan in the ’91 Rose Bowl.

We also think Jake Locker has a name and face straight out off a soap opera.  Imagine this dialogue:

Maria: Jake Locker, where have you been? I was worried sick.

Jack Locker: Maria, how dare you show up in the locker room in just a raincoat and heels?

Maria: If you won’t love me Locker, you will never inherit your father’s fortune.

Jake Locker: I only want to play ball Maria, I don’t need for your foolish charms.

(Background Music Swells)

Predicted Record: 5-7 (4-5 conference)

ARIZONA WILDCATS

Esquire Rating: 2/5

The Wildcats need to channel Teddy Bruschi’s intensity, circa 1995.

Arizona is a wonderful school with a sports program that any school would envy, however, football is not its strong suit. Even in a weak 2007 Pac 10, the Wildcats couldn't put together a cohesive team effort, and again missed out on the post season. The Wildcats best game was a win over the #2 Oregon Ducks; Willie Tuitama showed why he was the Pac 10’s 2^nd most efficient passer.

This hardwood obsessed school has often struggled to pull the concentration of its fans from basketball, beautiful co-eds, and great weather. A winning season and a star could bring those fans running. Tuitama will do his best with a veteran spread offense, but the defense is inexperienced and lost Antoine Cason, a first round NFL pick. It seems that no matter what the Wildcats have tried in the last 10 years, they have been unable to be better than mediocre. 2008 won’t be any different.

Must Win: UCLA (9/20). A low level program like Arizona has to take baby steps. Beating a mid level program like UCLA isn't a bad start.

Rivalry Comment: Somewhere in my convoluted Arizona research, I found that Arizona used to play in something called the “Border Bowl.” Classic, straight to the point, and a nice Western feel; The Rivalry petitions we bring back this wonderfully named affair.

Predicted Record: 5-7 (3-6 conference)

OREGON STATE BEAVERS

Esquire Rating: 2/5

Gutted like a Pacific Salmon.

The 2007 Beavers defeated Oregon, Utah, and a then #2 California, while RB Yancy Bernard did his best not to get overshadowed by fellow Oregonian Jonathan Stewart. Mike Riley rode his veteran team to a 9-4 record; The Rivalry is impressed that Riley showed patience and the ability to build a program. Riley has 3 consecutive winning seasons, a fact that should not go unnoticed.

2008 is a rebuilding year in the biggest sense of the word.  The whole offense is gone with the slight exception of the shaky quarterbacks -- the linebacking corps is gone -- and the star kicker is in the NFL. Riley will struggle to hit .500 thanks to the graduated starters and a killer schedule, including Penn State and Hawaii.

Must Win: UCLA (8/28). Win early and build confidence for the Baby Beavers.

Rivalry Comment: Someone tell Chad Johnson, a proud Beaver alum (? – I don’t know if he graduated), to calm down in Cincinnati. There are worse things than making eight million dollars a year and having a whole city love you.

Predicted Record: 5-7 (3-6 conference)

STANFORD CARDINAL

Esquire Rating: 2/5

Has Jimmy started a renaissance in Palo Alto? 

Everyone remembers the unbelievable upset of USC in Los Angeles in 2007, but no one remembers that Stanford’s offense was horrendous the entire year. In one 4 game stretch, the Cardinals scored 46 points, completely lacking the ability to explode.

The 2008 Cardinal will be short on talent as usual, but Stanford fans have a reason for celebration: the nation will be watching and paying attention, in hopes of another upset.  Media attention in Palo Alto for football? That might be the biggest miracle of all.

Must Win: ARIZONA (10/11).

Rivalry Comment: Even though the bar has been lowered tremendously for getting into Bowls, Harbaugh should be commended if somehow he leads the Cardinal to a 6 win season.

Predicted Record: 5-7 (3-6 conference)

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS

Esquire Rating: 2/5

New Spread Offense might alleviate the boredom I feel in writing the Cougar’s season preview.

3 Rose Bowl appearances in 100 years or so of football isn’t exactly something to put on your resume, plus the Cougars haven’t been exciting since Ryan Leaf was slinging bullets in 1997. New coach Paul Wulff brings his I-AA spread offense to Martin Stadium to try and revitalize the Cougars. C Kenny Alfred, a Rimington Trophy candidate, will anchor the O-Line, while senior WR Brandon Gibson should continue to put up big numbers.

No matter which players and coaches I talk about, the mentality has to change at Washington State. The Cougars need a winning season soon, or Gordon Gee might come out of nowhere and try to eliminate the football program.

Must Win: OKLAHOMA STATE (08/30). The Cougar faithful would love an early season upset.

Rivalry Comment: My roommates’ grandfather is a stud Cougar player from about 50 years ago, Johnny Bley. Hats off to that family starting the flag waving tradition at every ESPN Gameday.

Predicted Record: 4-9 (2-7 conference)

2008 Preview Series - Notre Dame

Like all social systems, college football has its nonconformists -- freelance bachelors that refuse to settle into the conference family tree. But unlike the silver-cuffed forty-something year old playboys of Lower Manhattan, the modern era has seen these bullish franchises become more sweaters, talcom powder, and Salina, Kansas.

Can the proud but prude class of independents restore its rebel roots?


NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
Esquire Rating: 3/5

Humble pie eating contest in South Bend.

Charlie Weis' pre-season secrecy surrounding the competition for starting quarterback in 2007 had all the right stuff: A dormant legend coming off a 10 win season for the first time in a decade, back-to-back BCS bowl appearances, and a veil over its new weaponry.

As Weis quipped, "I'm not trying to sandbag anyone, but I think that going into your first game, its important that any additional ammo that you could have to help you win that one game you should use."

Unless the General thought that a field goal would be enough to take Georgia Tech, he was firing blanks. Over the next three months the Irish shuffled quarterbacks twice more, manning the worse offensive in Division 1, averaging a limp 242 yards and 16.4 points per game. The 3-9 season was perhaps the worst in the program's history.

The good news, Charlie seems to have gotten the message: less stratagem and deception, more strength and fundamentals. Nine returning players on offense, including the prematurely acclaimed Jimmy Clausen return healthy, experienced, and determined. Clausen has bulked up in the weightroom, better ensuring that blind side hits won't force him to the sidelines. Standout safety David Bruton has done the exact opposite: trading excess pounds for speed, in hopes of keeping the backfield off-limits for opposing pass-attacks.

Most importantly Weis himself has relinquished play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Hike Haywood to better see the forest for the trees -- an effort as much about player identification as management. The Rivalry, Esq. applauds this break from the Belichick school of coaching, and is confident Charlie will benefit from a slice of humble pie.

A difficult menagerie of a schedule with away matchups against Washington, Boston College, and USC will ensure the Irish have enough frequent flyer miles to cover tickets to a post-season destination, if they can earn a bid.

Must Win: MICHIGAN (Sept. 13th).

Rivalry Comment: NBC Sports: What you watch on Saturdays during ABC commercial breaks.

Predicted Finish: 8-4

2008 Preview Series - Big East

Fluctuating programs abound in the changed Big East.

The college football winds of change have swept rapidly through the Big East's ranks, sweeping top teams off to other conferences and depositing fresh new teams to compete. The East Coast's major conference now stretches from the Midwest to the Gulf of Mexico, and The Rivalry couldn't be happier. Although Miami (FL), the last National Champion from the Big East, is gone, the new teams are intriguing and located close to the best recruiting spots in America.

Will UCONN, the returning co-champ, continue its ascent to Big East power? Will Pat White help West Virgina run all over George Selvie and the best defenders the Big East has to offer? The Rivalry doesn't have a great feel for how the Big East will shake up this year, but is intrigued nonetheless.

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Esquire Rating: 5/5

Can the Mountaineers forget their historic choke to win the Big East?

WVU and its high flying option spread were one win away from a BCS title game birth when…Pat White’s thumb and LeSean McCoy happened. The 13-9 loss to Pitt ended BCS title hopes but the subsequent 48-28 thumping of Oklahoma restored hope to the insane WVU fans. This program, thanks to the now departed Rich Rodriguez, has now become a perennial top 5 team.

But the year is 2008 and Rodriguez has departed WVU for Ann Arbor and the West Virginia State Court. Stewart inherits lightning quick Pat White, Noel Devine, and a defense that was top 10 in the nation last year. Stewart must figure out how to keep White healthy – everyone knows a quarterback gets hit a lot in an offense that runs 75% of the time. Stewart also must keep his team mentally sharp as they face six easy match ups early, followed by six consecutive challenging games versus Auburn, UCONN, Cinci, Louisville, Pitt, and USF.

Must Win: @UCONN (11/22). The UCONN student paper occasionally prints a graphic that says”…and West Virginia scores again,” an ongoing joke referring to the 66 points WVU scored on UCONN in their 2007 match up. If WVU grabs another victory versus the Huskies, a Big East title is easily attainable.

Rivalry Comment: The state’s reaction to Rich Rod leaving for Michigan speaks to the intensity of the West Virginia fans. The Rivalry loves the passion, but would advise West Virginia fans to draw the line at making fun of Rodriguez’s nephews and family members…never mind, that’s great. Keep it up WVU fans.

Predicted Finish: 10-2 (6-1)

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS
Rating: 3/5

Warning: Bulls may be charging.

The Bulls were #2 in the nation at one time in 2007…before blowing 3 games in a row and getting blown out by the Oregon Ducks, sans Dennis Dixon. George Selvie and a surprisingly athletic QB Matt Grothe led USF onto the national stage and 2008 looks to be more of the same.

USF lost its monster DB’s to the NFL, but fortunately the Big East is not a league dominated by passing offenses. Selvie is an All-American and completely dominated games in 2007; he will be double teamed constantly this year. Thanks to a weaker Big East, USF can contend for a BCS bid.

Must Win: @CINCINNATI (11/30).

Rivalry Comment: The Rivalry wanted to give the Bulls a 4/5 rating, but couldn’t pull the trigger. Maybe it’s the lack of tradition; maybe it’s the late season swoon of 2007.

Predicted Finish: 9-3 (5-2 conference)




CONNECTICUT HUSKIES
Esquire Rating: 3/5

D1 Newbies to Big East Champs.

Residents of the state of Connecticut and its classic capitol city, Hartford, have traditionally claimed the New England Patriots as their football team of choice. Now these hedge fund managers from New Haven to Greenwich have another football option for their rooting interests: the 2007 Big East Co-Champion Connecticut Huskies. Entering Division 1 in 2000, Randy Edsall and his Huskies have now given their home state a solid football team to root for. The 2007 Huskies snuck up on disappointing Louisville and Rutgers to grab a share of the Big East title.

The 2007 Huskies boasted one of the top 20 defensive teams in the nation, putting on impressive displays against top teams like Louisville, South Florida, and Rutgers. The 2008 Huskies have an easy non-conference schedule and return their QB Tyler Lorenzen and most of their excellent defense. If the Huskies find a consistent passing offense, they can win the Big East. Kudos to Edsall for building a team that contends year in and year out.

Must Win: @LOUISVILLE (9/26). UCONN could be sitting at 7-0 versus Cincinnati, but only if they beat the Cardinals in Kentucky.

Rivalry Comment: The Rivalry thinks UCONN needs new jerseys. The home jerseys are a blue mess and the away jerseys are a mishmash of lines and stripes. Is the Rivalry’s new calling fashion?

Ugly jerseys be damned though; UCONN’s football program has the 3^rd best graduation rate of any D1 team that played in a bowl last year. (Courtesy of the Connecticut Prospectus for 2008).

Predicted Finish: 9-3 (5-2)

CINCINNATI BEARCATS

Esquire Rating: 3/5

No Mauk, no problem?

Spending four years at Miami (OH) allowed me to see Cincinnati in action every year. The Bearcats consistently trotted out talented but erratic teams good for 6 or 7 wins per year. That changed in 2007 when the Bearcats and transfer Ben Mauk won their first 6 games on their way to a 10 win season and a bowl game. Mauk was the sparkplug for the offense and the defense was 12^th in the nation in scoring defense. Brian Kelly capped the season by being named Big East Coach of the Year.

With Mauk’s attempt for another year of eligibility denied and a killer 2008 schedule that includes Hawaii and Oklahoma, the Bearcats have little chance of winning 10 games again. But Cincinnati has a solid defensive line and Brian Kelly has recruited top athletes wherever he has gone.

Must Win: MIAMI (OH) (9/20). Win the Victory Bell from their Oxford rivals and enter the Big East conference schedule with a 3-1 record.

Rivalry Comment: The Rivalry believes Cincinnati has the perfect proximity for recruiting in Southern Ohio. Cincinnati is surrounded by high school football powers Elder, St. Xavier, Moeller, and Colerain and also pulls top athletes from all around football rich Ohio.

Predicted Finish: 8-5 (4-3)

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Rating: 2/5

Now that Rutgers is short their diminutive star, will they ever reclaim their 2006 form?

Rutgers was mediocre for so long (check out Terry Shea’s 11-44 record from 1996-2000) that their success in 2006 was doubly surprising. Still, Ray Rice and a solid defense gave Rutgers 3 solid years in a row.

The 2008 squad won't have Ray Rice or the best defensive players from 2007. They will however have Mike Teel, a veteran QB who has played huge games against the best teams of the Big East. Rutgers has such an easy non conference schedule makes them a shoe-in for bowl eligibility, but they don't have the firepower or experience to be a 10 win team.

Must Win: @ CINCINNATI. This is a killer match up; two teams with solid defenses and questions on offense.

Rivalry Comment: In the last three years, Rutgers has taken a huge step in bringing their program onto the national spotlight. It’s an important step to take; programs like Illinois, Mississippi State, and Oregon have made similar moves.

On a different note, Rutgers puts on one hell of a night match up in New Brunswick/Piscataway. The Rivalry loves when the lights shine on the big red R at midfield and the whole picture is framed against the dark New Jersey sky.

Predicted Finish: 7-5 (3-4)

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

Rating: 3/5

LeSean McCoy: the next Reggie Bush...But can he do enough to save Wannstedt’s job?

The first time I watched McCoy, he was running over and through the East Lansing Spartans. After watching him lean inside and then cut so violently outside that a defender fell over, I decided I needed to look him up. Apparently some coaches should have looked him up too; McCoy ran for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2007 while the Panthers created good vibes around Coach Wannstedt.

Unfortunately, 2007 might be the last year where Wannstedt can win 5 games and call the season a success. Pittsburgh has a national championship in their past, the location and tradition to recruit top 10 classes every year. Pitt needs to ride McCoy and great wide receivers and hope that two great recruiting classes can effectively fill the lineup. The schedule will not help, with Notre Dame and Iowa appearing as non conference foes.

Must Win: @SOUTH FLORIDA (10/2). Remember that in 2007 South Florida shut down West Virginia’s vicious running attack. Oh, Pitt did the same later in the year.

Rivalry Comment: Bush, 6 ft, 205 lbs. McCoy: 5’ 11’’, 210 lbs. Bush’s highlights. McCoy’s highlights. And oooo! Is that Tony Dorsett?

Predicted Finish: 6-6 (3-4)

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Rating: 2/5

Paging Bobby Petrino, paging Bobby Petrino; please report to the Louisville sidelines.

Louisville’s 2007 season was unspeakably bad. It seemed that every ESPN game break involved a Louisville opponent scoring touchdowns and even NFL bound Brian Brohm couldn’t stop the bleeding. The 38-35 upset to Syracuse was, at that time, called one of the greatest upsets in NCAA history.

So how will the Louisville Cardinals of 2008 respond? Hunter Caldwell is being called the top prospect of the 2009 NFL draft class even though he threw all of 14 passes. And Caldwell won’t be blessed with Urrutia and Douglas, the two star wide receivers Brohm was blessed with. On the defensive side of the ball, Ron English (formerly Michigan’s defensive coach - the Rivalry loves his gap tooth and intensity) will not be blessed with experience or overwhelming talent.

The Rivalry loves the Cardinals and knows that Louisville has the potential to be a top 25 team…but not this year.

Must Win: KANSAS ST (9/17). Dreary Old Manhattan…The Cards will run into a good Kansas State team in a notoriously tough stadium.

Rivalry Comment: The Big East’s powers are in constant fluctuation; 2 years ago, the powers were West Virginia, Louisville and Rutgers. Now? UCONN, South Florida, West Virginia, and Cincinnati.

Predicted Finish: 5-7 (2-5)

SYRACUSE ORANGE

Rating: 1/5

Maybe the Orange should change their team color to the Red, for embarrassing.

Greg Robinson just hasn’t taken steps here to mix things up. The school of Jim Brown and Donovan McNabb has fallen on a dry period; Paul Pasqauloni is no longer in Syracuse to pull top East Coast recruits. Further, the 2007 Orange had the 118^th worst offense in the NCAA.

Can the new Orange channel the spirit of Sam Cooke and bring a change to Syracuse? The Rivalry, and every other blogger, thinks this isn’t the year. To win 5 games they'll have to get production from a horrid offensive line and a defense that got overrun by the semi-decent offense 2007.

Must Win: @NORTHWESTERN (8/30). The Wildcats at home are a tough match up for the Orange, but a win will give hope.

Rivalry Comment: Syracuse Alum’s who succeeded in the NFL: Larry Csonka, Ernie Davis, Jim Brown, Ark Monk, Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, Mcnabb. Yeesh.

Predicted Finish: 2-10 (0-7)

2008 Preview Series - Big 10

Laced with prestige and procrastination, college's oldest Division 1 conference enters the modern era with the thick-knuckles and high-brow of Fitzgerald's last tycoon. Like a vintage port, the only conference to enjoy Association of American Universities membership status for all its institutions is thick-blooded, sweet, and slow to change.

Esteemed from the glory days, the retro-eleven boasts more national championships than any other Division 1 conference (in case you wondered, when factored using its present membership roll, the BCS collective ranks as follows: Big 10 - 27, SEC - 25, Big 12 - 19, ACC - 16 Pac 10 - 14, Big East 4. Source: College Football Data Warehouse).

That being said only 3 of its 27 championships occurred in the last thirty years. Compare that to the SEC's 8, and you begin to see the shift in parity that's substituted crisp autumn leaves and cool November snaps for sweat, julips, and electric September nights in the swamp.

Although the binding is dusty, the textbook-10 remains college football's classiest co-op. Still, marriage to rosy tradition won't help the smart league seem any less dull. To reinvent itself for the future, the north needs to re-capture its grit, consistency, and urgency from the bottom up.


MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Esquire Rating: 1/5

Is it 2009 yet?

Those who thought it could never rain in the Metrodome got drenched in 2007 when this outdated program was bludgeoned by Bowling Green, and Florida Atlantic -- and had to rely on a short-range botched field goal attempt to get into double overtime in their lone season win against Miami (Ohio). Despite ranking 48th in total offense, the Gophers abomination of a defense placed dead last (119th) nationally -- giving up a 518 yards a game (and 3,472 yards in the air).

Suffice it to say Tim Brewster enjoyed the kind of honeymoon traditionally reserved for people with chronic motion sickness who forget to pack Dramamine on a three-month cruise around Cape Horn.

Still, despite their torturing play, Brewster managed to put together a terrific recruiting class. Incoming speed, and a move back onto campus to a new outdoor stadium set for 2009 give the Gopher-faithful cause for future optimism. Still, this won't be the year -- at least in conference. Away matchups at Ohio State, Illinois, and Wisconsin will make Minnesota long for the piss-stained protection of their home dome.

Must Win: @ BOWLING GREEN (Sept. 6th). Showing up against the Falcons will do two things, 1. Prevent the Big Ten from embarrassing itself out of conference, and 2. Give Minnesota a shot at opening the season 4-0. It's all downhill from there.

Rivalry Comment: How do you fix one of the worst defenses in NCAA history? Hire, Ted Roof, the guy who just got fired for leading Duke to a 1-11 record, and three consecutive winless seasons in the ACC. Then again, 92nd in total defense is better than 119th. (And, in all honesty The Rivalry, Esq. respects what Roof did at Georgia Tech and thinks he'll be a good fit for the Golden Gophers)

Predicted Finish: 4-8 (1-7 conference)


INDIANA HOOSIERS
Esquire Rating: 2/5

No huddle a la mode.

2007 was a pivotal and challenging year for the Hoosiers, bookended by the loss of Terry Hoeppner, and the emergence of a pulse in Bloomington. Hoeppner's final message to his team was simple and powerful: "Play 12" -- a reference to earning a bowl bid for the for the first time since 1993 (and a metaphysical challenge to live life to its fullest margin).

Inspired by Terry, the Hoosiers "defended the Rock," and earned a bid to the Insight Bowl. The Rivalry, Esq. supports the new generation of Indiana football.

In that spirit 2008 is somewhat of an encore. But this time around Bill Lynch will have to to establish spatial presence without record breaking wide receiver James Hardy. With quarterback Kellen Lewis on suspension -- it's not yet clear which IU squad we'll see -- the tight-knit family of 2007, or a new class, with balding offensive line play, week ground efforts, and uncertain leadership.

To siphon momentum and stretch opposing coverages, Lynch has installed a spread format no-huddle offense. Unlike Northwestern, which has undergone a similar transition, there's no guarantee he has the personnel to man the vogue attack. A light schedule, with no Ohio State or Michigan gives the Hoosiers every opportunity to repeat their 2007 success. But first, they need to settle the fundamentals.

Must Win: MICHIGAN STATE (Sept. 27th).

Rivalry Comment: Play 12.

Predicted Finish: 6-6 (2-6 conference)


NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Esquire Rating: 2/5

It's all right, it's okay, you can work for us someday.

The Wildcats went into 2007 with high (for Evanston) expectations. And why not -- they were set to paint the 7th easiest schedule in the FBS purple. A fair 6-6 record resulted, but 3 losses in the final 4 games kept the bowl eligible brainiacs home for Christmas.

Still, Northwestern finished 32nd in the country in total offense (2nd in the Big Ten) -- clawing out an impressive 427 average yards a game. That offense returns largely intact, with quarterback C.J. Bacher, and wide receiver duo Eric Peterman and Ross Lane. But, the Wildcats finished 10th in the conference in scoring -- something of a disparity. To finish what they start, incoming offensive coordinator Mick McCall spent the spring installing a no-huddle offense

Increased pace and purpose could put the Wildcats in position to make a bowl run.

Must Win: SYRACUSE (Aug. 30th). Handling this inaugural out of conference matchup gives Northwestern a chance to open the season 4-0.

Rivalry Comment: To encourage home attendance get rid of the lame Wildcat sound effects at Ryan Field.

Predicted Finish: 6-6 (3-5 conference)


IOWA HAWKEYES
Esquire Rating 2/5

When it doubt, go with pink.

The last time Iowa football seemed to mean something was on the eve of their October 2006 primetime matchup with the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes. Gameday broadcast live from Iowa City and a golden sea of fans filled Kinnick stadium in hopes of an epic upset.

The Rivalry, Esq. watched from a sports bar in Charleston, WV, en route to take advantage of whitewater release season on the Gauley river. Leading 21-10 at halftime, the Buckeyes opened the second half with one of the greatest improvisational shows of athleticism of all time. Anthony Gonzalez took a pitch left at the Iowa 30-yard line, dug and pivoted with one fist in the grass, and reversed field for a touchdown sprint down the home team sidelines that buried the No. 13 Hawkeyes.

Since that night, Kirk Ferentz's squad hasn't been the same. A 2007 season littered with losses has demasculated an otherwise capable franchise. If 109th in total offense doesn't sound like the Iowa you remember, welcome to the club.

Count on 2008 to bring about better passing variances with the return of wideout Andy Brodell, and tight end Tony Moeaki -- both figures sat out 2007 with injuries. Defensive leadership, from the line back should make for a stingier squad that won't see the likes of Ohio State or Michigan.

Must Win: @ MICHIGAN STATE (Oct. 4th)

Rivalry Comment: It's always worth making special mention of one of the more flamboyant traditions in college football: Kinnick Stadium's pink visiting locker room.

See http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2174828.

The Rivalry, Esq. is entertained by this Freudian commentary on psychosexual development, and proposes that all teams go to ridiculous lengths to humble and harass opponents. For example, Penn State could concentrate Joe Paterno's flatulence and pipe it into the visiting lockers through the central air...

Predicted Finish: 7-5 (4-4 conference)


PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
Esquire Rating: 3/5

Will Paterno distract or deliver number 59?

A vanilla plain 2007 for the Nittany Lions was salvaged by 6-1 record at home, and a bowl win over Texas A&M. This year, they'll have to take to the highway, with away contests at Wisconsin and Ohio State. Eight returning starters on an offense that averaged 30.3 points a game, and finished 55th nationally last year, will help -- especially the soundness of the line, garnished by the highly anticipated addition of speedy Stephfon Green at running back.

Still, the quarterback position remains up for grabs, and a defense, weakened by the loss of Linebacker U's valedictorian Sean Lee, has a long road ahead of them. The program also continues to be overshadowed by the status of Joe Paterno, and rumors in the blogisphere that Greg Schiano will be tapped to take his place.

Must Win: ILLINOIS (Sept. 27th).

Rivalry Comment: Schiano should be in State College by the new year.

Predicted Finish: 8-4 (4-4 conference)


PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
Esquire Rating: 3/5

Moustache madness continues in West Lafayette.

Joe Tiller's preparations to lead the Boilermakers through conference play a final time, should encourage reflection on the larger implications of the future of the Big 10. The beloved barons (Alverez, Carr) have relinquished their grip, leading to a new generation of young coaches more willing to play with fire and experiment with the fashions of the game. With Paterno primed to retire, and progressive principals already in-place in Ann Arbor, Evanston, Bloomington, Urbana, Minneapolis -- and soon to be West Lafayette, modernization in the Big Ten is inevitable.

So how will Tiller punctuate his final go round? First, by sustaining 07's rapid fire passing attack under quarterback Curtis Painter. Painter will miss his favorite target, Dorien Bryant who led last year's receptions with 936 yards -- but will have capable Greg Orton on the strong side. A load of tight end talent helps mitigate the dropoff in the wake of Dustin Keller.

Still, a young, injury prone line needs to develop, first to protect the pass, and second to promote a sound ground game. A damning schedule with a home matchup again Oregon, and visits to Notre Dame and Ohio State will test Tiller's capstone Boilermakers.

Must Win: OREGON (Sept. 13th).

Rivalry Comment: Is it just us or does Tiller's successor Danny Hope look a little like he might have strangled someone to death in the 1980s? The Rivalry, Esq. will have its friends over at the Bureau do a missing persons search in eastern Kentucky.

Predicted Finish: 7-5 (5-3 conference)


MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
Esquire Rating: 3/5

Can the diplomat develop the Spartan attack?

Anyone who watched Ohio State play defense in 2002 believes in Mark Dantonio. Like his mentor Jim Tressel, Dantonio is cool and Ambassador-like. He's not funny (although it's often amusing when he admits it), and the The Rivalry, Esq. suspects he's a briefs man (boxers are a little too loose for his blood).

What he's doing in East Lansing is somewhat more assertive. Dantonio's first-order defense finished 2007 a respectable 31st nationally, allowing only 2,800 yards in the air. With six starters back, including defensive end Trevor Anderson (who followed Dantonio from Cincinnati) expect coverage sets to continue to siphon routes.

The return of quarterback Bryan Hoyer and power back Javon Ringer (who rushed for 1,447 yards in 07), gives the offense identity. Up and coming receiver packages complete the set.

That being said, the Big 10 isn't getting any easier and State faces a suffocating schedule with out of conference matchups against California and Notre Dame, and Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin back-to-back-to-back.

Must Win: @ CALIFORNIA (Aug. 30th).

Rivalry Comment: This is the year to kick your big brother's ass.

Predicted Finish: 8-4 (5-3 conference)


MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
Esquire Rating: 3/5

Riddler and the Riddle Factory

Like D.C. Comics supervillian The Riddler, Rich Rodriquez continues to mask the visage of the new Wolverines -- an elongated national question mark that's larger than any other in the leadup to 2008. Will his trademark option/spread stun the good ol' boy Big Ten, or will his players spoil the plot?

Yes and yes. Surprising backfield speed in the spring game (if you watched ESPN's coverage you didn't see it -- they edited a botched handoff and an interception together and called it a day) from Brandon Minor and Kevin Grady will be lethal in short yardage situations. Pure athletic instinct should damper their lack of sophistication -- but this corn-fed bunch still sticks out like a sore Northern thumb.

Expect Michigan to lose when they shouldn't, and win when it counts. A solid 2009 recruiting class is sure to help the hangover.

Must Win: WISCONSIN (Sept. 27th) their first conference match comes against a sure power. A win here might have the undesirable side effect of returning expectations to Ann Arbor prematurely.

Rivalry Comment: Welcome to the rivalry, Rich. Please sign on the dotted line.

Predicted Finish: 8-4 (5-3 conference)


ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
Esquire Rating: 4/5

All juice. No pulp.

2007 was a milestone year for Ron Zook and Illinois football. The Juice/Mendenhall tandem instituted ferocity into a previously complacent Illini, pulling a dramatic away upset of then No. 1 Ohio State in Columbus and barreling to the Rose Bowl when the Buckeyes were tapped to play in New Orleans. A 17-49 massacre at the doorstep of USC, exposed the squad's greatest weakness, a defense that allowed the Trojans to put up 633 total yards.

They won't happen again. 2008 welcomes a defensive front that Zook says "...has a chance to be the best I've been around in 15 years." Ends Doug Pilcher and Derek Walker will flank sack leader Will Davis to form a cohesive unit with size and mechanics. Middle linebacker Brit Miller is one the smartest in his position -- and will keep the belt tight.

That leaves the small problem of replacing Rashard Mendenhall -- that little guy with the 1,681 yard rushing season. Spring injuries stunted the growth of the incoming backs -- so its not yet clear whether Illinois will have a go to. If they can't find one, they'll be frighteningly one-dimensional in the face of Big 10 defenses more adjusted to their antics.

Their schedule is nicely spread out, giving them time to stay healthy and plan for the peaks.

Must Win: @ MISSOURI. In an unusual major power matchup this August 30th neutral site game begs to be the best of opening weekend. Both bordering rivals are Esquire 4s, and the winner will be on the way to a big season.

Rivalry Comment: If Ron Zook is looking for good bulletin board material here's a pin up: The Rivalry, Esq. thinks the Missouri Tigers want it more.

Predicted Finish: 9-3 (6-2 conference)


WISCONSIN BADGERS
Esquire Rating: 4/5

Will the Badgers become the first Adidas-sponsored team to actually win?

Wisconsin is close to becoming the new Clemson when it comes to underachieving. The 2007 squad was much acclaimed, and started 5-0 before dropping to Illinois and getting pounded by an unranked Penn State. Injuries limited bruising back P.J. Hill to an underwhelming 1,212 yard season.

2008 will see 17 starters back, including Hill, Tight End Travis Beckum, and Linebacker Jonathan Casillas. Quarterback Tyler Donovan is missing -- his consistency will need to be re-established to diversify the Badger offense and keep defenses spread out.

While Bret Bielema appears to be set on defense with 9 returning, injuries have hampered growth in Madison. With 26 players missing some portion of spring ball due to injuries, a strong showing at camp is essential to get back to game speed. A wimpy out of conference schedule should give the Badgers something to chew on.

Must Win: OHIO STATE (Oct. 4th). The Buckeyes have historically struggled at Camp Randall. This is Bielema's chance to pick up his predecessor's momentum.

Rivalry Comment: The Rivalry, Esq. will be in Madison for the festivities and reminds Wisconsin fans not to act like douches when your team happens to score a field goal in the first quarter. It's going to be a long day.

Predicted Finish: 11-1 (7-1 conference)


OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Esquire Rating: 5/5

The Yankees of college football are loathed and loaded.

Ohio State, of late, has cornered the market on seconds. Ask anyone south of the Mason-Dixon, and they'll tell you that slow-hi-o can't play with speed. They'll point to consecutive national championship losses and an 0-9 record against the SEC as affirmative proof.

But no one mentions how the Buckeyes entered 2007 with four returning starters, ranked 11th in the country, and expected to muster only a modest showing in a middle-tier bowl. Led by young talent and helped by historic late-season collapses, the Buckeyes fell backwards into the championship, where they lost to the preseason No. 1.

2008 couldn't be any different. 20 returning starters, including unofficial Heisman frontrunner Chris "Beanie" Wells who rushed for 1,609 yards last year on an injured ankle will lead a poisonous squad. (Ask former LSU safety Craig Steltz about Beanie's speed -- he saw a little when he failed to close in the open field on a 65 yard touchdown break).

A defense that loses first-round draft pick Vernon Gholston, takes comfort in the fact they return Lawrence Wilson -- the breakout defensive end who suffered a broken leg in last season's opener. Nine other defenders return to a squad that ranked first in the country statistically last year including James Laurinaitis, and Malcolm Jenkins.

Still, Quarterback Todd Boeckman displayed poor judgment late in the 2007 season -- coverage misreads led to multiple turnovers in losses to Illinois and LSU. Boeckman will have to mature to lead the Scarlet offense in 2008, a unit that ranked 62nd nationally in 07.

Must Win: @ USC (Sept. 13th). While it won't affect their bid to be the first team in the history of the Big Ten to win three consecutive outright championships, this early trip to La-la land is the one of the most anticipated games of 2008. With its national reputation on the line the Buckeyes need a Hollywood ending in the first meeting between the elites in 24 years.

Rivalry Comment: An interesting twist on the pro-form offense might develop with the selective incorporation of Scouts No. 1 overall recruit Terrelle Pryor. If the dual-threater from Jeannette, PA can shake up short yardage situations, the Leak/Tebow combo might have a new home in Columbus.

Predicted Finish: 12-0 (8-0 conference)