The Pac 10 Sings a Melancholy Tune.
The Rivalry’s music tastes vary widely; lately we've been jamming to The Arcade Fire, Talib Kweli, and Led Zeppelin. But while doing the Pac 10 Season Preview, we wrote and researched to the iconic sound of Janet Jackson’s “What Have You Done for Me Lately” and Shania Twain’s machismo-stomping “That Don’t Impress Me Much.” These two hits seemed appropriate listening material when discussing the always hyped, mostly disappointing Pac 10 football conference.
From the Nike-infused intensity in Autzen to the star-studded Trojans in
The 2007 Pac 10 conference was a media darling before the season; the 2008 Pac 10 will fly under the radar.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS
Esquire Rating: 5/5
Orenthal James’ alma mater gears up for a title run.
Matt Leinart. Reggie Bush. Pete Carroll. USC is not a bad place to play football right now. But let us not forget that just 9 years ago, USC was a 5-7 last place team lacking an identity. USC, the
The Trojans recruit the best athletes and place them in a proven offensive and defensive scheme. The Trojans offense is traditional in comparison to teams like
But no matter how highly rated the USC Trojans were or how badly they trounced
2008 will bring high expectations, as the Trojans talent level far outstrips
Must Win:
Rivalry Comment: Fun Stat: Since Pete Carroll came to USC, the Trojans are 11-3 against Top 10 opponents.
Predicted Record: 11-1 (7-1 conference)
Esquire Rating: 3/5
10 win seasons don't make you a great team, especially in the Pac 10.
Many critics believed Dennis Erickson’s 10-3 campaign in 2007 was the beginning of the Sun Devil’s rise to national prominence. The Rivalry, Esq. wonders aloud whether the successful season of 2007 was more of a referendum on the mediocrity of the Pac 10, instead of proof that the Sun Devils have a burgeoning program. Proof lies in
The 2008 Sun Devils return a great QB in Rudy Carpenter and a solid running back corps. Erickson has a national championship and adds an air of relevance to the Pac 10; he has shown offensive ingenuity wherever he has coached. Everyone expects the Sun Devils to win 8-9 games, but the big test will be how the Sun Devils play in their monster games versus
Must Win:
Rivalry Comment: Somewhere in my muddled research, I found that
Predicted Record: 9-3 (7-2 conference)
Esquire Rating: 3/5
Good times, bad times.
The above mentioned Led Zeppelin song does a pretty good job of summing up last season for the Oregon Ducks. My
With All-American’s
Must Win: @USC (10/4). The Duck’s need to attack whoever is at quarterback for USC. Getting pressure on Mustain or Sanchez will be paramount if
Rivalry Comment:
Predicted Record: 9-3 (6-3 conference)
Esquire Rating: 3/5
Jeff Tedford faces his biggest challenge yet.
Whenever I think of 2007
On the offensive side of the ball, Blue Chip QB Kevin Riley looked excellent in the Armed Forces game. He has an excellent arm and doesn’t lack mobility. Ooo, a QB Controversy for the QB magician? The Rivalry is intrigued.
Must Win: UCLA (10/25).
Rivalry Comment: All American Center Alex Mack is 320 pounds and can do the splits. The Rivalry vaguely remembers a Nickelodeon show called “Alex Mack” about a teenage girl. We think this coincidence is interesting, but absolutely meaningless.
On another note, The Rivalry certainly roots for
Predicted Record: 7-5 (5-4 conference)
UCLA Bruins
Esquire Rating: 2.5/5
Will the Mormon make it his mission to lead UCLA to a turnaround?
Ben Olsen, Rick Neuheisel, and Norm Chow aim to turn around this mediocre Bruin program. They each have distinct roles. Olsen needs to prove he is an All-American QB and needs to avoid injuries. Neuheisel needs to convince recruits that UCLA can be as successful as cross-town rival USC. Chow needs to add some pizzazz to an offense that has struggled since Cade McNown left in 1998.
The Bruin defense is loaded like a good baked potato. The 2007 defense was hard hitting and intense; Reggie Carter, Brigham Harwell, and Akeen Ayers are all NFL talent.
Must Win:
Rivalry Comment: Once every 10 to 20 years, the Bruins have an All World QB. The study Gary Beban won the Heisman in ’67, Troy Aikman won the Davey O’Brien in ‘88, and McNown almost won the Heisman in ’98. Can Olsen be the next great one?
Predicted Record: 7-5 (5-4 conference)
Esquire Rating: 2/5
Will Jake Locker be recruited by “Days of Our Lives”?
We were going to harp on the horrid nature of U-Dub’s 2007 results, but were persuaded to take a closer look. The Huskies almost beat USC and played
12, 10, 33, 44, 27, 44, 55, 48, 9, 29, 23, 42, 35 (for an average of 30 points per game allowed)
Must Win: NOTRE DAME (10/25). Will the Golden Domers be embroiled in another losing campaign or will they furnish a tough test for
Rivalry Comment: The Rivalry, Esq. has very real memories of feeling depressed at the age of 8 while watching
We also think Jake Locker has a name and face straight out off a soap opera. Imagine this dialogue:
Maria: Jake Locker, where have you been? I was worried sick.
Jack Locker: Maria, how dare you show up in the locker room in just a raincoat and heels?
Maria: If you won’t love me Locker, you will never inherit your father’s fortune.
Jake Locker: I only want to play ball Maria, I don’t need for your foolish charms.
(Background Music Swells)
Predicted Record: 5-7 (4-5 conference)
Esquire Rating: 2/5
The Wildcats need to channel Teddy Bruschi’s intensity, circa 1995.
This hardwood obsessed school has often struggled to pull the concentration of its fans from basketball, beautiful co-eds, and great weather. A winning season and a star could bring those fans running. Tuitama will do his best with a veteran spread offense, but the defense is inexperienced and lost Antoine Cason, a first round NFL pick. It seems that no matter what the Wildcats have tried in the last 10 years, they have been unable to be better than mediocre. 2008 won’t be any different.
Must Win: UCLA (9/20). A low level program like
Rivalry Comment: Somewhere in my convoluted
Predicted Record: 5-7 (3-6 conference)
Esquire Rating: 2/5
Gutted like a Pacific Salmon.
The 2007 Beavers defeated
2008 is a rebuilding year in the biggest sense of the word. The whole offense is gone with the slight exception of the shaky quarterbacks -- the linebacking corps is gone -- and the star kicker is in the NFL. Riley will struggle to hit .500 thanks to the graduated starters and a killer schedule, including
Must Win: UCLA (8/28). Win early and build confidence for the Baby Beavers.
Rivalry Comment: Someone tell Chad Johnson, a proud Beaver alum (? – I don’t know if he graduated), to calm down in
Predicted Record: 5-7 (3-6 conference)
STANFORD CARDINAL
Esquire Rating: 2/5
Has Jimmy started a renaissance in
Everyone remembers the unbelievable upset of USC in
The 2008 Cardinal will be short on talent as usual, but Stanford fans have a reason for celebration: the nation will be watching and paying attention, in hopes of another upset. Media attention in Palo Alto for football? That might be the biggest miracle of all.
Must Win:
Rivalry Comment: Even though the bar has been lowered tremendously for getting into Bowls, Harbaugh should be commended if somehow he leads the Cardinal to a 6 win season.
Predicted Record: 5-7 (3-6 conference)
Esquire Rating: 2/5
New Spread Offense might alleviate the boredom I feel in writing the Cougar’s season preview.
3 Rose Bowl appearances in 100 years or so of football isn’t exactly something to put on your resume, plus the Cougars haven’t been exciting since Ryan Leaf was slinging bullets in 1997. New coach Paul Wulff brings his I-AA spread offense to Martin Stadium to try and revitalize the Cougars. C Kenny Alfred, a Rimington Trophy candidate, will anchor the O-Line, while senior WR Brandon Gibson should continue to put up big numbers.
No matter which players and coaches I talk about, the mentality has to change at
Must Win:
Rivalry Comment: My roommates’ grandfather is a stud Cougar player from about 50 years ago, Johnny Bley. Hats off to that family starting the flag waving tradition at every ESPN Gameday.
Predicted Record: 4-9 (2-7 conference)
3 comments:
Rivalry, your logic and fact-checking ability in your PAC10 preview are execrable.
Example of poor fact-checking: Oregon State's departed star's name is Yvenson, not Yancy; their 2007 kicker is in the CFL, not the NFL; Riley has two consecutive winning seasons, not three.
When teams like Oregon and Cal start the season with big wins against notable nonconference opponents, then struggle in conference, that is a sign of a strong, balanced conference.
Ohio State got into the National Championship game again through the benefit of a cruddy league schedule.
The Big10 had so many nonconference losses to poor teams and very few quality wins.
So Cal coasted to a ridiculously easy win over Illinois in the Rose. anOSU was never in the the game with LSU. Michigan loses to 1AA App St and gets destroyed at home by PAC10 4th place Oregon 7-39. Iowa loses to Big12 doormat ISU and to Western Michigan. Minnesota loses to Bowling Green and Fla Atlantic. N'Western put the 1 in 1-11 Duke.
These are all bad losses. They are countered by two quality wins, both in Bowls: PSU beat 7-6 TAMU, and Michigan beat SEC also ran Florida.
When you look at the PAC10, You've got Cal's wins over Tennessee and AFA; Oregon's blowouts of Houston, Michigan, Fresno St, and South Florida; Ore St's wins over Utah and Maryland; SC's strolls past Nebraska and Illinois; UCLA's win over BYU; ASU over Colorado.
These are ALL of the Pac's OOC losses: ASU losing to Texas (10-3), UA losing to BYU (11-2) and New Mexico (9-4); OSU losing to Cincinnati (10-3); Stanford losing to Notre Dame(3-9) and TCU (8-5); UCLA losing to Utah (9-4), Notre Dame and BYU; and bottom feeders UW losing to BCS teams Oh St and Hawaii and WSU losing to Wisconsin (9-4). The the only bad losses there are the Notre Dame losses. Stanford admittedly stinks and UCLA was using a walkon freshman because of injuries. Nothing like the rash of bad losses by Big10 teams.
Isaac - Thanks for the fact-checking, I appreciate your attention to detail.
You make one point very clear: the 2007 Pac 10 played better in non conference games than the 2007 Big 10. Congratulations, your stats support that very point.
But my preview dealt with so much more. A conference's strength is found through so much more than non-conference competition, a fact you seem to ignore.
You so easily brush off Ohio State's loss to LSU, and I am sure you would brush off OSU's loss to Florida in the 2006 BCS title game. But doesn't the fact that a Big 10 team consistently makes it to the BCS title game count for anything? Of course it does.
You easily attribute California's amazing swoon to the Pac 10's strength and balance; I attribute it to an overhyped squad that was exposed badly.
My point of the preview was to say: Every year, California, Oregon, USC and sometimes AZ State obtain high preseason rankings and national title hype, and each year, the only team to show staying power is USC. I thought 2007 was a perfect example of the point of my preview.
You can have your supposed "strong, balanced conference," but I won't jump on the Pac 10's bandwagon until a team other than USC makes a sustained run at national relevance.
Issac,
Great post.
I'll take issue with one minor point: "anOSU (sic) was never in the the (sic) game with LSU"
A 10-0 lead, and a stalled LSU offense amounts to never in the game?
LSU tied the score with the help of a total of 28 yards in penalties -- a nervous shower of mistakes that buried the Scarlet.
Still, never in the game?
The Buckeyes outmatched the Tigers in total yards (353 to 326), but couldn't overcome a troubling 3-13 third-down conversion rating, and 3 turnovers.
You're right. We were outmatched. But, never say never.
The good news -- your conference will get the chance to prove itself with a Big 10/Pac 10 challenge looming in the fall. OSU v. USC, Penn State v. Oregon State, and Michigan State v. Cal should shed some light on the depth dilemma.
Your friends in essentialism...
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